ConclusionWould this picture be more helpful to you as an executive than a point estimate like "January 26th, 2023"? Might this graph encourage more focused conversations about what is driving the variability? What if the market changes suddenly and the schedule must be reduced - would this provide a focused area to search for solutions? Historically, Monte Carlo tools were expensive, complicated, and could take literally hours to run. That was the excuse used to justify ignoring this approach for decades at the expense of billions in lost profits and immeasurable grief for the people involved. With the computing power on most modern desktops, the ability to provide better data for executive decision-making is now a few keystrokes away. There are better options. I encourage you to explore them, and if you would like to continue the conversation, you can reach me here, or continue with the following links: estimates, Project Management, deterministic scheduling, best case estimate, worst case estimate, likely case estimate, probabilistic scheduling, Monte Carlo simulation. PostscriptPayson Hall would welcome opportunities to assist clients with improvement of their focus and skills on strategic project planning, portfolio management, project selection, and project management execution skills.
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